Day Trading the Index Futures - How to Judge Good
Entries
QUESTION: If the SP futures fall through support and go
straight down for another two points, and I want to get short,
should I a.) enter immediately, b.) two points below support, or
c.)should I wait for a pullback and then try to get short?
You've got to be patient enough to wait for entries that have
two things: first - a high probability of immediate gain, and
second - a small potential for loss if the worst happens and your
hard stop gets hit. This principle applies to all entries, and
it's useful to think about it when you're trying to decide
whether to enter on a pullback or a continuation of a move.
Entering on a pullback offers less dollar risk than chasing
the market because you can place your hard stop on the other side
of support or resistance and risk only a point or two. (Of
course, this doesn't mean you're going to hang around and let the
market hit your hard stop if things go wrong.)
Entering on a pullback also gives you a better chance of
gaining a point or so in the first 30 to 60 seconds of the trade.
This is important, though very few people seem to be talking
about it, perhaps it's a well kept secret.
I rarely (almost never) chase the market. Here's why. Usually,
if you chase the market for your entry, you'll get filled about
the same time the crowd's emotion is exhausted. The market will
pull back and you'll have to get out immediately (if you're
smart). On the other hand, if you're stubborn and you don't get
out immediately, you'll have to suffer through the pullback and
*hope* that the trend continues before your stop is hit. If the
market gets close to your stop, you'll be tempted to move the
stop away just a little bit. Once you give in to the temptation,
you've got an expensive trading habit that may eventually take
you out of the business.
Whenever you find yourself *hoping* that the market will come
back and get you out of a bad position, you really have to head
for the exits *now*. Don't even think about the commission, or
all the time you spent waiting for the setup. just get out.
QUESTION: What if there is no pullback?
If the market breaks through support and keeps going down
without a pullback, you just have to be a pro and let it go. All
the lost opportunity in the world won't take your account balance
down, but chasing high-risk, low-probability entries will cost
you.
Mike Reed is author of TradeStalker's RBI Trader's Updates. He
has been trading the Market for 23 years. His support and
resistance numbers have been published on the internet since
1996. Mike's nightly support and resistance zones are specific
and incredibly accurate. He offers an unlimited free trial of his
nightly TradeStalker RBI Trader's Updates. http://www.TradeStalker.com
Copyright 2005 Mike Reed
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